This project has received
funding from the European Union's
Seventh Framework Programme


The oil price-macroeconomy relationship since the mid-1980s: A global perspective


Read the paper

We investigate the oil price-macroeconomy relationship from a global perspective, by means of a large scale macro-financial-econometric model. In addition to real activity, we consider fiscal and monetary policy responses and labor and financial markets conditions, in order to provide a comprehensive account of the macro-financial effects of oil price shocks. We find that oil market supply side, speculative, preferences, and volatility shocks exercised recessionary effects during the first and second Persian Gulf War and 2008 oil price episodes.

As long as oil supply will keep expanding at a slower pace than required by demand conditions, and in so far as the recently passed regulatory provisions aimed at controlling financial speculation in the oil (and other commodities) futures market will prove unsuccessful, a recessionary bias, determined by higher and more uncertain real oil prices, may then be expected to persist also in the near future.

    Share Box


    Read our quarterly newsletters.


    RAstaNEWS, the EU and the World: Discover upcoming and past events



    Visit our Forum

    Interact with RAstaNEWS partners and other users.

    go to forum